By Akbar Jessani, CEO, Universal Shipping Inc.

Introduction

As we move deeper into 2025, economic uncertainty has become a defining feature of the business landscape. From volatile inflation expectations and ongoing geopolitical tensions to rapidly changing trade policies, the environment demands more from business leaders than ever before. At Universal Shipping Inc. (USI), these shifts are not abstract trends — they are real-time realities shaping the way we serve our clients and plan for the future. This article presents my perspective on the current state of the economy and offers guidance for navigating the risks and opportunities ahead.

1. The Uncertainty Index Hits New Highs

One of the most telling indicators of our times is the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which reached an all-time high of 1,434.60 in May 2025. This surge reflects deep concerns across industries regarding fiscal policy, trade tensions, and unpredictable regulatory changes. High uncertainty discourages investment and forces companies to hold more cash and delay hiring or expansion plans. Business leaders must now develop decision-making frameworks that accommodate ambiguity and pivot swiftly as policies evolve.

Graph Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXD

2. Inflation: Still a Persistent Threat

Inflation is proving to be more resilient than expected. In March 2025, consumer inflation expectations reached 3.6%, the highest since October 2023. This persistent inflation affects everything from wage pressures to transportation and warehousing costs — a major concern for companies like USI. For logistics companies, higher inflation means recalibrating fuel surcharges, renegotiating contracts, and managing tighter margins. Our approach at USI has included enhancing real-time data analysis, optimizing shipment consolidation, and increasing automation to drive cost-efficiency.

Graph Link: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-expectations

3. Manufacturing Output and Supply Chain Pressure

U.S. manufacturing output continues to feel the weight of global uncertainty. According to recent data from Statista and S&P Global, factory activity has declined as businesses reduce orders and wait for clearer signals. This contraction has a ripple effect across supply chains, slowing movement at ports and creating bottlenecks at every link. At USI, we’ve shifted toward a more flexible fulfillment model, offering just-in-time warehousing and alternative routing solutions to minimize disruption.

Graph Link: https://www.statista.com/chart/21778/manufacturing-output-in-the-united-states/

4. Lessons for Leadership in an Age of Volatility

Economic unpredictability is not a short-term phase — it’s the new operational backdrop. As CEOs, we need to embrace strategic agility while maintaining focus on long-term value creation. Here are a few key actions I recommend to my peers:

• Scenario Planning: Run multiple models for demand, pricing, and regulation.
• Financial Flexibility: Maintain liquidity and revisit capex plans quarterly.
• Diversify Supply Chains: Reduce dependency on one region — whether China or elsewhere.
• Invest in Workforce Resilience: Upskill teams to handle technological and logistical pivots.
• Leverage Strategic Partners: Partner with vendors who can adapt as quickly as you do.

Conclusion

In a world defined by unpredictability, certainty becomes a competitive advantage — and that certainty must come from within. At USI, our resilience comes from our systems, our people, and our relentless focus on helping clients navigate change with clarity and confidence. I believe businesses that stay grounded in strategy, yet nimble in execution, will not just survive the uncertainty of 2025 — they will lead through it.

5. How Small Businesses Can Survive This Economic Crisis

As the CEO of a logistics company that partners with many small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), I see the economic pain many are facing daily. Cash flow is tighter, access to credit is more limited, and supply chain disruptions are disproportionately impacting smaller players who lack the scale to absorb delays or extra costs.

Here are five practical steps I believe every small business should consider to not only survive — but emerge stronger from this economic period:

• Reevaluate Fixed Costs: Negotiate leases, defer non-essential expenses, and shift to variable-cost models where possible.
• Explore Alternative Suppliers: Don’t wait until your China-based supplier is disrupted. Look into regional options in Mexico, India, or even U.S.-based manufacturers.
• Strengthen Customer Communication: Be transparent about potential delays and keep customers engaged through updates and loyalty incentives.
• Lean on Strategic Partners: Companies like USI can help you store, prep, and ship with agility, often at lower cost than maintaining in-house operations.
• Access Government Programs: Monitor federal or state-level relief initiatives, especially those supporting logistics, working capital, or reshoring efforts.

This crisis will reward the scrappy, the nimble, and the forward-thinking. Small businesses must become more data-driven, digitally integrated, and relationship-oriented than ever before.